Plinko odds & payouts

The distribution

A ball that falls through n rows makes n independent left/right choices. The bucket it reaches is the count of rights, so the chance of bucket k is C(n, k) / 2ⁿ. This is a binomial distribution, and it is why the centre of every Plinko board is crowded and the edges are empty.

Exact figures

Payouts and RTP

Return to player is Σ(probability × multiplier). On the standard tables it comes to 98.9–99.2% for every combination of rows and risk. The paytable designer starts from the probabilities and chooses multipliers so the sum lands at 0.99; the "risk" setting redistributes the same 99% between the middle and the edges. The multiplier table shows every paytable with its computed RTP, and the odds calculator gives the probability of each bucket for any setting.

Three worked examples (16 rows)

• Low: 80% of drops return ≥1×; the biggest prize, 16×, has a 1-in-32,768 chance. Standard deviation 0.33× per drop.
• Medium: 45% of drops return ≥1×; 110× top prize. Standard deviation 1.47×.
• High: 21% of drops return ≥1×; 79% land on 0.2×. 1,000× top prize. Standard deviation 6.57×.

What "1 in 32,768" means in practice

At 20 drops a minute you would expect a 1,000× roughly once every 27 hours of continuous play — and at CA$1 a drop, those 27 hours cost about CA$330 in expected losses on the way. The 1,000× explainer goes deeper.

FAQ